UNIVERSAL OFFER CINEMA STREAM and PANDEMIC DISRUPTION threat to cinema future?

"Universal Pictures has a broad and diverse range of movies with 2020 being no exception. Rather than delaying these films or releasing them into a challenged distribution landscape, we wanted to provide an option for people to view these titles in the home that is both accessible and affordable," said Jeff Shell, CEO of NBCUniversal, in a statement. "We hope and believe that people will still go to the movies in theaters where available, but we understand that for people in different areas of the world that is increasingly becoming less possible." [MacRumors]

FilmGuardian analysis

It's unclear how (if??) NBCUniversal have cleared this with cinema chains (all posed to be forced to close in the USA, already shuttered across much of the world), but they've announced a new streaming option for titles currently/recently on their theatrical run.

The price is $20 per movie, not quite the cost of two cinema tickets.

They are clearly online innovators, seeking to flip the narrative of disruption into their own favour. I haven't seen any reports on how successful Prima was (if you don't remember, find the tag on this blog), but that for-the-filthy-rich-only model now has its own scruffy cousin. 

The disruption of convergence and digitisation was meant to be in favour of the little guy, according to web 2.0 evangelists like David Gauntlett and Malcolm 'long tail theory' Gladwell, but the dead hand of the big five has not loosened at all from around the throat of the global film industry. We're not seeing a spurt of Indie growth like the late 60s or late 80s/early 90s - though in both cases most of the new auteurs became studio insiders and the upstart companies got bought up.

The pandemic could have as big a long-term impact in disrupting traditional practices and behaviour in its estimated 18 month run as a couple of decades of digital - more specifically, online - disruption has managed. All the big 5 have delayed their tentpole releases and productions (same for TV) are grinding to a halt. 

Universal are trampling over the theatrical release window in a way that Disney tried with Alice in Wonderland - only to back down when the major cinema chains threatened a complete blackout/boycott of the movie. It could be that the pandemic lockdown builds up a renewed appetite for expensive cinema screens ... or that people get very used to their home cinema setup. And just how long can the Bond and all the other tentpoles be held back? Will all the studios ultimately copy Universal's innovation as this lockdown looks set to continue for many months???

SEE: MacRumors and As cinemas go dark, the film industry may go straight to Netflix.

BOX OFFICE: Gant Rule in 2016

IN THIS POST:
A definition of 'the Gant Rule'; testing it out with the summer 2016 UK/US box office; why is this so profoundly significant for understanding the British cinema market; how satirical cartoon Curtisland illustrates this; why does it not always work (including Bridget Jones example).

I was surprised just now to find that 'the Gant Rule' doesn't bring up many relevant hits ... until the phrase 'box office' is added to the search.

Lets have a fresh look at this...

A SHORT DEFINITION OF 'THE GANT RULE'*
Box office analyst Charles Gant (who has a weekly Guardian column, but whose writing appears in many other publications worldwide) has long argued that a typical transatlantic hit (a success in both the UK and US markets) will make ten times as much in the US ($ figures) as in the UK (unadjusted £ figures).

In short, for a UK/US hit, UK £box office x10 roughly = US $box office

*it is highly advisable to put such terms in '' to help denote them as technical terms; the media world is so vast and complex, no single examiner will be familiar with every conceivable term

Is he right? Usually, yes!

READ MORE:
I have blogged on this a few times...
Use the Gant Rule tag to find previous posts - or simply make your own comparisons with films' UK/US box office!

TESTING THE GANT RULE: SUMMER 2016 UK v US BOX OFFICE

 Captain America: Civil War + The Secret Life of Pets examples

Using figures from his ScreenDaily column, Gant looked at the 2016 summer box office on both sides of the Atlantic. Jump straight to the number one hit and you'll see a prime example of the Gant Rule in effect: Captain America: Civil War took £37m in the UK and $407m in the US. That's precisely x11 the UK figure - pretty accurate forecasting there!

NBC-Universal uses horizontal integration to keep Damon franchise airborne

Okay, so this might not be part of the OFFICIAL marketing blitz from NBC-U - but such trivial but viral UGC as this vine is worth many millions in advertising spend when considered as a whole, able to penetrate beyond core audiences targeted by the distributors. Here's where I found it:

An unofficial JB Facebook page with 48k likes.

The Vine was featured by a UK newspaper:

My main point here, however, is a good example of how the mega-conglomerates can flex their muscles to mutually benefit different wings: NBC-U both creating and benefitting from pre-release hype of the new Bourne movie by playing the Damon-starring previous films across EIGHT of its NBC-U channels. Research indicated that existing franchise fans were the key audience for the movie, so NBC-U sought to reinforce familiarity with the long-running franchise:

VERTICAL, HORIZONTAL INTEGRATION an illustration: Warp, Working Title, Marvel, Avatar

Some of NBC-Universal's film subsidiaries

Working Title is part of a vertically integrated conglomerate, NBC-Universal, itself part of a much larger parent company, Comcast. NBC-U turns over an incredible $25bn a year and combines production through such subsidiaries as Working Title, distribution through Focus Features, StudioCanal and Universal International Pictures, as well as exhibition arms ranging from the US TV network NBC to the subscription streaming site Hulu. Horizontal integration and the synergies from this are part of their strategy, with the films fuelling interest in the Universal theme parks for example. Working Title have been part of horizontal integration strategies ever since they expanded into the American market and sold off 67% of their shares to PolyGram (later bought by NBC-U). One of their earliest global hits, 1994’s £3m Four Weddings and a Funeral which grossed an incredible global £150m, had an OST (soundtrack) on Island Records … a subsidiary of PolyGram!

3D Sky's not the limit for 3D after all

Launched with an Avatar exclusive, as brazen an example of both vertical and (with heavy plugs in The S*n for instance) horizontal integration, Sky has announced its shutting its 3D channel.

That's great news for the cinema industry, a strong sign that there are limits to the appeal of home cinema.The writing's been on the wall for 3D for some time now, but Sky is finally acknowledging the fact that, really, we just don't want to wear 3D glasses in our living rooms thank you very much.So Sky will pull the plug on its dedicated 3D channel this June. It will move its 3D content to its booming On Demand library section, giving it a much better home. That is, until Sky rolls out its 4K content and we forget this whole 3D thing ever happened. [http://www.techradar.com/news/television/tv/sky-just-pulled-the-plug-on-3d-tv-1292274.]

That's rather good news for the cinema industry at least, a sign that home cinema does have its limits.