I'll update this through to July 2021, then set up a fresh post for 2022. The basic headline ...
THE CINEMA RELEASE WINDOW HAS BEEN OBLITERATED BY DISNEY AND NBCUNIVERSAL ... BUT PVOD ISN'T NECESSARILY THE POST-COVID KING
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| Statista reveal the startling covid impact (US + Canada figures) |
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| Financial Times Feb 2021 report: the business sections are good sources of film news! |
NETFLIX BUYS BIG FOR ROALD DAHL UNIVERSEhttps://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/sep/22/netflix-acquires-works-of-roald-dahl-as-it-escalates-streaming-wars-matilda-bfg?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
HOLLYWOOD REPORTER DECLARES NETFLIX BIG WINNER OVER BIG 5 2019/20
While Western cinemas have been largely shut or empty for a year+ China's have largely re-opened, and the world's 2nd biggest film market is at least temporarily by far the largest in 2020/21 so far.
Moreover, that market is moving away from the big 5 tentpoles with several local productions topping $0.5bn in China alone, eg the comedy Hi Mom ($700m+).
Remember, China operates a strict quota system to limit non-Chinese releases. In 2012 that was just TWELVE foreign releases a year!!! (FT)
ROLLING UPDATES ON CINEMA INDUSTRY NEWS 2020/21
LAWSUITS AGAINST TORRENT PIRATES NEW REVENUE STREAM?!
https://torrentfreak.com/movie-piracy-customers-of-major-uk-isps-receive-letters-demanding-cash-210915/
STARS, DIRECTORS FIGHT AGAINST HYBRID RELEASE STRATEGY AS SCARLETT JOHANSSEN SUES DISNEY! BUT.... PEACOCK HITS 54M SIGN-UPS + STARTS INTERNATIONAL ROLL-OUT
Guardian follow-up on Johansson highlights how many of the films given hybrid or streaming only releases were those led by women, people of colour and queer identities.
NETFLIX HITS 80% OF 18-34...TURNS ATTENTION TO GREY MARKET, 55-64+
Interesting demographic stats (
Guardian) on Netflix UK and wider audience, incredible that they're already at 80% penetration of 18-34 segment (counting subscribers and shared logins). That 55-64 is the lowest big demographic (ignoring 65+) BUT leapt to 50% during the pandemic is astonishing. That puts real question marks over the future of the UK terrestrial channels, BBC1/2, ITV1, C4 and C5.
BLACK WIDOW 2ND WEEK COLLAPSE UNDERMINES DUAL RELEASE (SIMULTANEOUS CINEMA/STREAMING) STRATEGY
BBC reports an historical 67% US box office drop for Black Widow, which has thus swung from hit to miss, and still doesn't have a China release date. That's Disney; Universal avoided a boycott threat, which may yet switch to Warner Bros who announced ALL their slate would debut in HBO Max + cinemas simultaneously.
MATT DAMON LOST $284m BY TURNING DOWN AVATAR!
The
article figure ignored the reality of how 10% of 'profit' is calculated, but still - what a deal to turn down!!
INDIE PVOD HIT GREENLAND SELLS SEQUEL FOR $75m AT CANNES
IndieWire: The numbers are impressive. Having scored $52m from global theatrical, it was P/VOD only for the USA...:
IndieWire’s box office expert Tom Brueggemann reported in February 2021 that “Greenland” had “ranked at or near the top of the VOD charts ever since” it became available to purchase December 18, adding, “Chart placements aside, VOD financials are difficult to assess. However, evidence suggests that STX has already net $60 million-$80 million on the film’s $35 million budget.”
WILL EU IMPOSE TV/FILM QUOTA ON UK PRODUCTIONS?
Probably! Many Euro nations (including the UK until Thatcher) impose limits on the US % of one or more of TV, radio, cinema productions broadcast/screened to prevent the annihilation of domestic production, therefore representation, by the globe-stangling big 5.
(Useful counterpoint - Netflix seems to have concluded that sizeable domestic production is key to success in non-US markets, not just blockbusters and their own tentpole productions like The Irishman. Spotify likewise has given a global platform to K-Pop, Hispanic beats and more, popularising many non-Western artists.)
Now the EU are considering laying the boot into the UK by restricting access for its media productions.
AMAZON BUYS BOND STUDIO MGM FOR $8.5BN - TIME TO TALK OF A BIG SIX AGAIN?
Read the Bradshaw analysis
here; quotes below are from this fellow
Guardian article.
If you want further insight into the craziness of the film industry, try
this denofgeek story about the time United Artists (owned by MGM) gave up a 30% ownership stake to Tom Cruise in return for his signing a production deal.
'The famous studio has a library of 4,000 film titles and 17,000 hours of TV programming – ranging from Gone with the Wind and The Hobbit to TV hits such as The Handmaid’s Tale – that has collectively won more than 180 Academy Awards and 100 Emmy Awards.
Four years ago, Amazon splashed out $1bn on the rights to make six TV series in the world of The Lord of the Rings after its founder, Jeff Bezos, reportedly cited Game of Thrones as the sort of hit he wanted to drive the growth of the company’s streaming service.
Amazon spent $11bn on content last year, up from $7.8bn in 2019, as it increasingly invests in winning subscribers to its Prime subscription service. Netflix spent about $17bn last year. Amazon is vying for global streaming supremacy with Netflix, which has more than 200 million subscribers, and Disney+, which launched 18 months ago and has rapidly grown to more than 100 million subscribers.'
UNIVERSAL SET IMAX RECORD IN CHINA WITH F9 [FAST + FURIOUS]
ComingSoon. They actually released it in China FIRST, another sign of the USA's weakening grip as the top global market, where it took an astonishing $136m in the opening weekend! Furthermore, wrestling star John Cena who stars in F9 went on to Weibo to apologize for (accurately!!!) describing Taiwan as a country. Nothing can be allowed to dent blockbusters' commercial prospects! (The source is linked to the Chinese government:
GlobalTimes)
His apology has had a mixed reaction on Chinese social media - the
Guardian doesn't bother reporting reaction in Taiwan, a state fearing military invasion to enforce China's claim, an illustration of Chomsky's propaganda model (five filters: source strategy) at work. BUT does report that Vin Diesel, the franchise's lead star, announced part of the next film will be shot in China.
WARNER MERGER CREATES DISNEY RIVAL. UNIVERSAL, PARAMOUNT UNDER PRESSURE TO COMPETE. AMAZON BUYING $9BN MGM (BOND etc)
Guardian - Brands like HBO, Warner and Discovery are now under one roof as the drive to create subscription platforms with compelling TV/film content and large libraries encourages yet further concentration of ownership. HBO/HBO MAX have 64m global subscribers. The new conglomerate, WarnerMedia, is valued at $230 bn with $52bn annual revenues.
Amazon is set to buy mini-major MGM for $9bn (
Guardian): Bond is the fifth most-valuable movie franchise of all time, with its 24 films to date grossing more than $7bn, behind only the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Star Wars, Harry Potter and Spider-Man films. And with a loyal, global fanbase the films can be relied on to bring in about $1bn at the global box office.
[They looked at streaming options but calculated that revenues would be below any near-normal cinema rate, not having their own huge subscriber base like Disney. After FOUR postponed release dates, with the Billy Eilish theme track already out, it's set for 30.9.21]
Last year, Amazon spent $11bn on creating, acquiring or licensing music and video content for Prime subscribers, up from $7.8bn in 2019. Netflix spent about $17bn last year.
UNIVERSAL ITALY USES MAN TO DUB TRANS WOMAN
The practise of using deep-voiced CIS men to dub a trans woman's voice is also seen in Germany and Spain. Social media outrage has seen Universal apologize and pull the Italian version of
Promising Young Woman and delay the release until they replace the transphobic overdub.
Guardian.
NBCUNIVERSAL STREAMING PLATFORM PEACOCK HITS 42m SUBSCRIBERS
Disney+ growth is fuelled by The Mandalorian, for Peacock it's the WWE Network (American wrestling) and the sitcom The Office (the dreadful American version, not Ricky Gervais' original BBC series). Amazingly, NBCUniversal revenues were only down 9% in 2020. Deadline. More precisely, film/TV revenues only fell 0.6% with Universal theme parks expected to boom as covid eases (Variety). And it might employ vertical integration with another Comcast subsidiary, Sky, to roll out a version of Peacock in Europe. BroadbandTVNews.
MARCH 2021
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TORY PM JOHNSON APPOINTS VUE CINEMA CHIEF TO HEAD BFI - CULTURAL VANDALISM?
In some regards not surprising - Boris Johnson lies somewhere beyond mainstream right-wing thinking in general, not just in his enthusiasm for unregulated free markets, so the BFI might be seen as an ideological enemy like the BBC. But still ... to head up an institution charged with promoting the heritage of British cinema as well as diversity within the modern industry and it's productions with someone representing two pension funds, owners of the Vue cinema chain, seems somewhat antagonistic to the often arthouse outlook of the BFI.
The Guardian noted the PM's favourite film is Dodgeball, a crude Hollywood comedy; 'the love of Hollywood product over anything British is striking for a man so steeped in patriotism. Then again, such is the strange nationalism of this culture war. For all the tallying of union jacks in BBC annual reports, actual British talent is often cut from the top table. Netflix is held up as everything the BBC should aspire to. And in film, the closest thing to a government tsar is the chair of the BFI, a job Downing Street recently gave to Tim Richards, Canadian CEO of Vue cinemas, its parent companies two Canadian pension funds. Behind the scenes, the flag is for the punters. The money flows elsewhere.'
WARNER BROS ENTIRE 2021 SLATE OPENS ON HBO MAX - DUNE 75% FINANCIERS LEGENDARY SUE!
ScreenRant report on Warner's cinema/streaming same-day release strategy, another of the big 5 locking in the demolition of the release window. Dune is their biggest 2021 tentpole, with 6 sequels planned. The production company that footed 75% of the budget is understandably enraged: they won't get any returns from HBO.
ANALYSIS: WILL CINEMA RECOVER POST-COVID?
BLACK WIDOW LATEST CINEMA/DISNEY+ PVOD DUAL RELEASE, TV RECORD FOR THE FALCON + THE WINTER SOLDIER
Guardian reports that Disney continues with a mixed Disney+ only in territories with the service (Pixar's Luca) and simultaneous cinema/PVOD ($30 for Disney+ subscribers only, Luca + Black Widow) despite the boycott of some major US cinema chains over its smashing of the release window. The US market remains largely shuttered, running at around 10% of its pre-covid numbers while China enjoys a run as the world's largest market.
FEB 2021
PARAMOUNT SLASH 90 DAY RELEASE WINDOW IN HALF
Variety report the latest knife into the cinema corpse as the big 5 turn to their streaming subscription brands.
PARAMOUNT PLUS SUFFERS WEAK BRANDING AT LAUNCH
It's replacing CBS All Access after the CBS/Viacom merger, but its launch and campaigns have ignored the CBS link. Variety. Here's a later breakdown of the subscription offer (also Variety).
DISNEY+ HITTING 100M AND LAUNCHES ADULT CHANNEL
Specifically: 95m subscribers since launching in March 2020, so already half of Netflix's 200m. They're creating a 14+ channel for subscribers using a lot of back catalogue TV like Ugly Betty, Ally McBeal and Family Guy. Guardian
Luke Bradley-Jones, senior vice president of direct-to-consumer and general manager at Disney+ EMEA, acknowledged that some parents might have concerns about more adult content on Disney+. “We want to ensure Disney+ remains a loved and trusted environment for audiences of all ages, which is why we have been working hard on our product roadmap, and we have got some new parental control features that we are introducing, which are very robust and easy to use.”
Bradley-Jones said the controls would sit alongside the existing children’s profiles features and allow customers to set content ratings and control access to the app, and to individual profiles, based on those content ratings.
There will be seven ratings, from zero+ to 18+. The controls will also let customers use a pin “to make sure that other members of the household do not watch what they are not meant to”.
CHINA BOOMS AS US STILL DORMANT
Detailed FT report. 2 stats: China's regulator allows just 32 US films (the quota); Hollywood studios get to keep just 25% of Chinese revenues, the rest going back in to a Chinese state film firm!
Hollywood has always faced state-imposed limits on its ability to reach and profit from Chinese audiences. Beijing’s film industry regulator maintains a quota of 34 imported films per year, and importers only get to keep 25 per cent of box office revenues — remaining income goes to state-owned China Film Group or Huaxia Film.
You can see how China was fast catching the US in box office totals before the covid pandemic.
CINEMAS RENT SCREENS TO GAMERS
Symbolic of how they're struggling to survive. BBC. This can also be seen in Luxembourg!
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| Kinepolis are offering private group rental as one means of combatting covid limits and fears. |
JAN 2021
NBCUNIVERSAL'S PEACOCK GROWING FROM 26M SUBSCRIBERS? Variety report on their new centralised strategy, focusing on Peacock at the heart of it all.
COMPARING NETFLIX $17bn + DISNEY 2021 STRATEGIES
Netflix is now drawing over $6bn each quarter, over $25bn a year, but continues to spend massively - hoping to force several rivals out of business. Good Guardian feature on how Disney+ is focused on exploiting existing IPs but that we also see Netflix developing a small number of franchises too. It's new marketing video, fronted by Dwayne Johnson, Gal Gadot and Ryan Reynolds (appearing together in a Netflix tentpole), promises a new movie every week. That's more than double Warner's output for example.
DEC 2020
CONVERGENCE: LOW-COST FOREIGN DUBBING FOR INDIES?
WARNER JOIN THE RELEASE WINDOW SMASHING
Guardian. Cinema is doomed... (Another article analysed the reopening of 150 cinemas in the UK) Warner Brothers has announced that their 2021 slate of releases, including high-profile films such as Dune and The Matrix 4, will premiere on the streaming platform HBO Max.
The new hybrid release model will see 17 films launch online for US subscribers at the same time as they are released in cinemas, where available. They will then be available to watch for a month for no extra charge. The films will still receive a standard theatrical release internationally.
Rival studio Universal recently reached agreements with a number of US exhibitors to show their films while allowing a 17-day window before a digital release.
NETFLIX $1bn UK 2021 BUDGET, BIGGER THAN EVEN DISNEY
Imagine you're Warp's chief executive hearing this - even a studio subsidiary like Working Title should be concerned ... as will the cinemas, as this further boosts HOME cinema. Guardian.
Last October, Netflix struck a 10-year deal to take over all of Shepperton Studios, where films ranging from Alien to Mary Poppins have been made, to guarantee the space it needs to pump out productions without delay. The first production was the Charlize Theron film The Old Guard.
Shepperton’s parent company Pinewood Studios, home to the James Bond and Star Wars franchises, has struck a similar deal with Disney. The world’s largest entertainment company agreed the long-term deal as it shifts the business, traditionally focused on cinema releases and pay TV, to streaming with the launch of the Disney+ streaming service.
Earlier this month, Disney announced that its streaming service, which has been underpinned by the $100m Star Wars TV spin-off The Mandalorian, has managed to attract 74 million subscribers worldwide less than a year after launch.
Nearly £3.7bn was spent on shooting high-end TV shows and films in the UK last year, including blockbusters such as the James Bond film No Time to Die. Although £1.95bn was spent on shooting films, the growth engine is high-end TV production, defined as shows that cost more than £1m an episode to make.
Spending on such shows, from Game of Thrones to His Dark Materials, almost tripled to £1.7bn between 2014 and 2019, according to industry body the BFI. Almost 80% of that spend is from the likes of Netflix, Amazon and Disney, which have a combined UK viewership of more than 30 million, and more than 400 million globally.
SHAUN OF THE DEAD IN 40+ FILMS FREE THROUGH GOOGLE MAPS ON GOOGLE PIXEL 5G PHONES; APPLE CONVERGENCE TOO
Yet another means of distribution, another example of convergence...MAPS = FILM?!?! This is a tie-in, but on an epic scale, promoting Google Maps AND Google's Pixel phones (specifically newer 5G models). Despite many vastly bigger hits like Skyfall within the 40+, the article I read leads on SotDead.
Given that this is a 15, this would seem to undermine the BBFC age rating system too - surely most moderately determined younger teens would manage to sidestep any age restrictions?
This comes on the same day that news of Apple's newest line-up refresh comes out. They're using new custom-made ARM processors ... and the new OS (OSX is finally done, this is effectively OS11) is designed to make apps usable across iPhone, iPad and Macs, another great example of ever-deepening convergence. The iPad was already usable as a 2nd screen, a potentially great productivity boost for FCPX users.
KEY ISSUES:
convergence; tie-ins; age ratings/regulation; globalisation; Working Title; 5G; Retromania (Simon Reynolds); BFI
QUOTES:
A number of beloved British movies have been scattered across Google Maps, encouraging film fans to find and watch them for free.
The “virtual movie hunt” initiative is being launched by Google as part of their Google Pixel presents Mobile Cinema campaign later this month, in collaboration with the British Film Institute.
Discussing the choice of films and the upcoming initiative focusing on nostalgia, Dr Wing Yee Cheung, senior lecturer in psychology and researcher on nostalgia at the University of Winchester, said: “These movies are embedded with sensory memories of when we first watched them and whom we watched them with, which are key triggers of nostalgia.
Netflix is rated by the stock market as worth $10bn more than the king of vertical integration, Disney (Guardian), but can it really see off Disney+, Peacock (NBCU), HBO Max (Warner), Amazon Prime etc?
The Witches goes PVOD as Vue (UKs 3rd biggest cinema chain announces closures (Sky)
Now the world's biggest cinema chain, AMC (owns Odeon UK chain) sparks fears of going bust after Disney pull Soul. Wonder Woman 1984 the only blockbuster booked for rest of 2020!
Disney kicks cinemas when they're down! Soul goes Disney+ only (Guardian)
UPDATE 3: WORLD'S 2ND LARGEST CINEMA CHAIN SHUTS DOWN!!!! OCT 2020
After Bond delay, Picturehouse shutters 100s of UK & US cinemas (Guardian) With the aggressive expansion of online-first approaches (PVOD) by both Disney and NBCUniversal, it's looking increasingly likely that the normal practices of the film industry have been trashed by the covid crisis, with the release window smashed wide open and reopened cinemas struggling:
Cineworld, which owns the Regal cinema and Picturehouse chains, is understood to be preparing to announce plans to close all its 127 theatres in the UK as soon as Monday. It is also closing all its 536 Regal cinemas in the US.
UPDATE 3B - WHY THE TENTPOLE/BLOCKBUSTER FOCUS IS TO BLAME!!
Mark Millar, the Scottish comic book writer who created the Kingsman and Kick-Ass films, said the mainstream cinema industry had become too reliant on making a handful of blockbuster films with $200m-plus budgets rather than a variety of mainstream films with $50m to $80m budgets.
“This requires huge number of tickets needed to break even so nobody can risk the loss,” said the writer, who now works for streaming giant Netflix. “A slew of mid-budget movies could have salvaged [the situation] but studios don’t make those any more, sadly.” (Guardian)
And more tentpoles kicked back a year! (
Guardian again)
UPDATE 2 - NOW DISNEY PUT TENTPOLE MULAN DIGITAL ONLY
UPDATE:
New Guardian analysis considers the challenges to NBCUniversal's attempt to smash the release window - only an option for mid-level hits of under $500m box office expectations, won't work in China (world's 2nd biggest cinema market with $9bn take for 2019) or outside the richest countries like USA/UK.
The big 5 are itching to take control of the exhibition/exchange endpoint of the film cycle and to undermine the 3-month release window that sees cinemas have exclusive screening rights.
Disney tried to break it with Alice in Wonderland, but backed down after they faced a boycott from the big cinema chains in the USA.
Another
nice summary from the cinematicslant blog.
They've made as much from its premium VOD (PVOD) release ($19.99!!!) as from its cinema run, the $100m equalling the much higher box office return as NBCU keep a much higher % of the PVOD fees.
Despite the threat - the Odeon chain have announced a worldwide ban across their 1000+ cinemas of all NBCUniversal releases - they've announced more PVOD releases, high profile movies that would have played in currently shuttered cinemas.
This is a big story for the industry.... It's also an Oscars issue, with the anti-Netflix rule insisting on a theatrical release (which forced Netflix to do a small release of The Irishman and Roma to qualify last year) changed to theatrical release
intended.
Will they be able to close that door again?
