Disney bank on franchise not A-List stars selling

Dreddful...star power meant unmasking
Sly to exploit his appeal, rather obviously
ruining the concept of the masked Dredd

I've picked up on this theme a few times, and there is strong evidence to argue the point either way, but there clearly is some doubt emerging over the continuing veracity and vigour of the star system; movie marketing being centred on attaching and selling star names.

The now well-established dominance of the franchise system appears to offer an alternative - though its only Disney currently that seems to be banking on this, its tentpole productions shaving many $10s of millions from CGI-heavy budgets by casting young unknowns in key roles - AND tying them into multi-film contracts that will keep them on relatively low salaries, avoiding awkward renegotiations where actors have a strong hand. Look at the budgets for the first two Scream movies, or BJDiary, for examples of how actors can up their demands to stay in a franchise.

The Disney examples (Star Wars: Force Awakens and much of the MarvelCU, excepting Robert Downey Jr) shouldn't, i think, be seen as typical enough to dismiss the rule #1 of the film business, and Disney currently are an exception amongst the Big Six in taking this approach.

Some franchises/IP have sufficient pre-existing audiences to cope without stars. Harry Potter and the Hunger Games are good examples, so too Twilight (as horrible as those movies are, at least to non-teen, non-girl viewers like myself!).

Shocker: critics and audience hate this movie.

Hollywood showed repeatedly before The Dark Knight kick-started the current MCU hegemony that shoving a big name into an iconic costume is often box office poison: Stallone's abysmal Judge Dredd is the classic example; whether his star brand or performance, or the script, were to blame, fans hated it and a general audience couldn't suspend belief for 90 minutes to really get into Rockie/Rambo as the meanest (robo)cop of them all.

Netflix and Amazon rival big six?

I'll return to this to gather points made across many posts on this theme:
The traditional big six (7 if you count Lionsgate) vertically integrated US conglomerates that dominate global cinema have cause to be seriously worried about Netflix and Amazon (with Apple, HBO and many more bubbling away in the wings too).

The online giants are at once customer/distributor for the big six, including VoD and rental alongside DVD and Blu-Ray sales, and rival, with their film production budget growing, and the release strategies they follow undermining the concept of the release window.
Netflix’s Reed Hastings: ‘We’ve got a long way to go to get to ubiquity’.

CHINA bans Apple, Disney movie channels

While growth in the US is slowing, its international expansion is doing well, and though it may not have many subscribers in Syria or North Korea, it claims to be in all but one market globally. But that market is the world’s largest, China, where it has faced the same political barriers as other western media and technology companies.

“The Chinese government just closed down the Disney movie service. And they closed down Apple’s movie service. Those are two pretty sophisticated, relative to China, companies. It looks like the government just doesn’t want the foreign content distribution. Maybe someday in the future there’ll be an opportunity for us in China, it’s possible. We are continuing to work on it.”

Netflix’s Reed Hastings: ‘We’ve got a long way to go to get to ubiquity’.

NBC-Universal uses horizontal integration to keep Damon franchise airborne

Okay, so this might not be part of the OFFICIAL marketing blitz from NBC-U - but such trivial but viral UGC as this vine is worth many millions in advertising spend when considered as a whole, able to penetrate beyond core audiences targeted by the distributors. Here's where I found it:

An unofficial JB Facebook page with 48k likes.

The Vine was featured by a UK newspaper:

My main point here, however, is a good example of how the mega-conglomerates can flex their muscles to mutually benefit different wings: NBC-U both creating and benefitting from pre-release hype of the new Bourne movie by playing the Damon-starring previous films across EIGHT of its NBC-U channels. Research indicated that existing franchise fans were the key audience for the movie, so NBC-U sought to reinforce familiarity with the long-running franchise:

AFRICA Wakaliwood joins Nollywood, YouTube distribution

The production values, and recording equipment, are far below what a typical Western student can access - but this trailer alone has nearly 3m hits

Bit of a wider perspective on how the film industry works in a neglected (in terms of media coverage or awareness) market, Africa.

Nigeria's Nollywood has earned a reputation as artistically and commercially significant, now comes Uganda's Wakaliwood...

Consider the incredible kit and resources you can access as you read about Isaac Nabwana, shoestring film producer. Sample paragraphs below. 

See Quartz Africa's full article.

Gant Rule, British exceptions and the China factor

UK box office of $60m rivalled the US ('domestic') take

Cinema is at once BOTH a highly globalised industry utterly dominated by the big six US conglomerates AND a highly localised industry in which local stars, settings, even IP/cultural reference points, sell.

The Gant Rule is a useful means of explaining the US dominance, even as this is swiftly undermined by the surging scale and value of the Chinese market, pushing the typical US box office share of a typical global hit to well below the traditional 50%+ (closer now to 40% and falling). This has seen Hollywood squeeze in Chinese stars and settings, shoot alternative endings and extra scenes for different markets, buy up or partner with Chinese firms (with the complication of strict Chinese laws on exporting money), and generally be more sensitive about portraying Chinese as villains or simply the traditional crass stereotype of inscrutable, unemotional, indistinguishable masses (not that this has entirely disappeared).

Headline from  The Wrap

Universal spent millions altering the plot of World War Z (reshoots) so that the epidemic didn't start in China in a doomed attempt to get into the Chinese market. Censors there frown upon horror ('The country has strict laws outlawing any movies that deal with magic, horror or superstition.'). China limits the number of non-Chinese productions allowed in cinemas to just 34 a year - though this may rise in 2017 following negotiations with the WTO (World Trade Organisation). It is not making it easy for Hollywood to extend its global dominance:

...in other cases studios don’t alter their movies until post-production. Chinese censors cut large chunks out of several movies released last year, including 40 minutes from “Cloud Atlas” and 12 minutes from “Men in Black 3,” excising all scenes in Chinatown.
They also cut parts of the latest James Bond film, “Skyfall,” including a scene that featured the assassination of a nameless Chinese security guard.

Marvel had initially planned “Iron Man 3” as a Chinese co-production, a tactic that has been taken with films like “Looper” and “The Karate Kid,” in part because co-productions are not subject to China’s quota for imported films. Chinese censors must still approve them. [The Wrap]

Just 20 years ago China banned all foreign cinema:

China only opened its market to the Hollywood studios in 1994, when its own film industry had reached its nadir. “It wasn’t out of admiration for Hollywood but to save the Chinese film industry,” Rosen said. “People weren’t going to the movies.”
At the time, China only permitted 10 foreign movies to screen, then increased it to 20 before the current total of 34. Those additional 14 slots are all reserved for IMAX or 3D films. [The Wrap]

There is no questioning the ongoing utter dominance of the UK market by Hollywood - for figures read the annual BFI reports. BUT ... localised content still often retains an edge.

The US star helped market the film globally, but the British setting did not help US box office: boxofficemojo.

Localised here is a very broad concept - as is the legal definition of 'British production' for tax purposes:

The UK box office has consistently punched above its weight with family films adapted from British-authored material, fromCharlie and the Chocolate Factory (£37.8m) and Alice in Wonderland (£42.5m) toThe Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe (£44.4m) and, of course, Paddington (£38m).

These are mainly Hollywood productions, but with enough of a lingering element of Britishness to give them a home market boost, and so undermine the Gant rule. The Bridget Jones franchise is a more direct example, although it too is ultimately Hollywood fare (Brit producer WT being an NBC-U subsidiary, Polygram at the time of the original).

Gant's latest box office column highlights The BFG as the latest to benefit from this element of Britishness.

He also noted the latest example of event cinema, an annual classical concert now programmed in an incredible 534 screens, plus a stylized limited re-release earning more than the original run:

Also flying the flag for event cinema was Secret Cinema’s presentation of Dirty Dancing. ...  The run of just six dates delivered a final box office of £1.90m. That’s more than the combined runs of the original 1987 release (£1.62m) and the 20th-anniversary rerelease in 2007 (£224,000).

The BFG towers over UK box office while Star Trek Beyond fails to prosper.

A little bit more on the rising influence of the Chinese market, from an article which looks at directors outraged by remakes of their movies, in this case Red Dawn. The original 1980s flick saw Russians invade a US town, the recent remake swapped Chinese forces for this...until it dawned on the money men that they'd lose out on the Chinese market...so this was belatedly switched to North Korean forces:

Milius was partially vindicated when MGMchanged the invading aggressors to North Koreans for the final cut, though that move was made to appease the lucrative Chinese market more than to cheer up the original film’s director.

How dare you remake my classic! When directors attack

http://www.theguardian.com/film/filmblog/2016/sep/16/how-dare-you-remake-my-classic-when-directors-attack?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

WOMEN Rotten UGC CRITIC RATINGS are male-dominated

In the past, films relied on good reviews plus word-of-mouth. Today RT and IMDB have digitally replaced word-of-mouth and become hugely influential consumer websites as a result. Take these early audience reviews on RT: “Non-funny, man hating” … “Jokes about men, wasn’t exactly funny” … “garbage third wave feminism”. No surprise, all these were written and posted on the site by men. Each gave the film half or one star. “Ton of fun” … “Incredibly enjoyable” … “seeing it for third time tomorrow”. All these four and five-star reviews were written and posted by women.... Search on IMDB and you find thedata breakdown for reviews. Ghostbusters scores an average 5.3 out of 10. But for women the average score was 8.1, compared with 4.6 for men. But men’s scores matter more, because 22,500 men wrote up reviews on IMDB, compared with 7,500 women.

Don’t let film websites make a Muppet of you.

For liking it, I was criticized for “pandering to politically correct, radical feminist rubbish” by one reader, a sentiment echoed by another who tweeted that I “played it safe to stay politically correct” for labelling Feig’s achievement a “blast”. Many libelously accused me of accepting money from Sony Pictures to solicit a warm response. And it wasn’t just one or two tweets targeting me, but a host. 

The film has since opened in the UK (it opens in the US on Friday), but over the weekend, when the Ghostbros (as they’re commonly referred to now) went on the attack, no one apart from a small pool of critics had watched the film – meaning they were trashing it sight unseen. It’s likely they’re to blame for the film’s drastically low rating on IMDb, where over 57% of users gave it the lowest possible score. On Reddit, some have banded together in a spiteful effort to keep the favorable reviews from appearing on the community-led website.

Why Ghostbros on Twitter are monstering my Ghostbusters review.

Global ticket prices compared

The average ticket now costs $8.73, up from $8.58 during the first quarter and a 1.4% year-on-year rise. The numbers represent an average across all venues, titles and times; this tends to rise as the family and blockbuster season begins.The year actually began down on the numbers for 2015, which hit $8.70 in the fourth quarter, as Star Wars: The Force Awakens screened.However, prices in North America continue to compare favourably with those in the UK, where the average price last year was £7.17 ($9.47) – a rise of 48.25% over the decade.In China, whose box office revenue is due to overtake that of the US later this year, the average price is $6.50. The cheapest tickets are to be found in India. Average prices for single-screen cinemas in 2013 were around $0.93, rising to around $3.95 for multiplex screenings.

US cinema ticket prices reach record high.

DIGITAL DISTRIBUTION day-and-date challenges flop concept

The release window is proving resilient despite challenges from the digital upstarts Netflix et al, their disruptive force not yet shifting this fundamental feature of the film industry. Big six giant Disney soon backed down with its plans for a shortened cinema-DVD gap for Alice in Wonderland when cinema chains simply threatened not to show it.

Not all movies are produced with cinema box office as a priority or even realistic goal, however, and many of these breach the usual model - the key point being the SCALE of release. These are not wide releases, which means they're not seen to undermine the traditional arrangement that ensures cinema maximises its returns.

As I have blogged on the 48K Le Donk and Scor-Zay-Zee, though, a limited (or in its case, simply none!) cinema release means a much, much greater chance of newspaper, magazine and other mainstream media reviews that straight-to-DVD releases rarely get, explaining what seem to be shocking headlines about film releases taking under 100 at UK box office.

This strategy, of a very limited cinema release simultaneous with a DVD release, is termed day-and-date release.

“Day-and-date releases minimise costs for a distributor,” says Andreas Wiseman, Screen International’s head of news. “They only need to pay for a campaign once rather than at different stages throughout the windowing process. The growth in these kind of releases coincides with the proliferation of digital platforms. Distributor deals with platforms such as Netflix, LoveFilm, iTunes etc often require that a film is shown in a certain number of cinemas, so distributors will sometimes see the theatrical release as a box-ticking exercise.” 

Audience web 2.0 attack - the Ghostbros

Why Ghostbros on Twitter are monstering my Ghostbusters review.

StudioCanal UK film biz risks Brexit sinking

This is a great overall look at the operations of StudioCanal, a key player for both Warp and Working Title, and also a producer itself now (notably Paddington and a forthcoming sequel)

StudioCanal UK are already seeing costs up by 15% as sterling (the UK currency) has nosedived in value since the referendum. Their CEO, Danny Perkins, explains that the UK will need a specific treaty (as Switzerland has negotiated) to gain continued open access to EU cinema markets - which could take years, if it ever happens. Euro-financing has also been made more difficult to access. If US studios fill that void, they are MUCH less likely to support ideas which reflect British culture instead of taking a more generic, commercial approach.

Consider the practicalities too of StudioCanal personnel trying to visit other Euro branches, or even just pre-production visits and research if UK citizens require visas to do so.

Silver screenings: Hwd leaves older to Indies n arthouse

Ignored by youth-obsessed Hollywood, older audiences flock to indie films http://gu.com/p/4mnfg?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Blogger

Video journals

[in]Transition: where action meets academia http://gu.com/p/4nae2?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Blogger

Brexit blow to Brit cinema diversity

As it stands, only a small fraction of British films are profitable; just 7% of UK films made from 2003 to 2010 saw returns for investors. The loss of public money from CEM will likely result in production companies and investors prioritizing box office yield over creative risk-taking. 

nofilmschool.com

BFI launch VoD and subscription

BFI Player: a homespun alternative to the VOD giants http://gu.com/p/4yegx?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Blogger

Sky Cinema rains on rivals with daily premieres

Sky Movies rebrand to feature one premiere a day http://gu.com/p/4y82k?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Blogger

BIFS options

Some possibilities for 2016 BIFS, running Sept 20 - Oct 2nd across 3 cinemas in Luxembourg.

StG STUDENT WORK: FILM OPENINGS, MUSIC VIDEOS
Top of my wishlist is to incorporate the 3 film openings (2-3mins each) and 6 music videos (4-5mins each, including 2 versions of same track) - the final cuts are viewable below:

Why EU law and Brexit could kill UK Indies SUMMARY

Realised I'd blogged a few on the same theme, so I'm gathering them together in this revised post, looking at how influential EU law is - and the possible impact of the UK's surprise Brexit vote. In a nutshell, the EU as an increasingly neo-liberal, free market institution is pushing for reforms that in theory boost competition - but in reality will severely undermine Indies and slash film production while boosting the conglomerates. Brexit poses similar threats, with production, funding and distribution all facing huge cuts at the Indie level, co-productions made difficult and access to EU cinema markets cut, while the huge studio production industry will face issues too.

Rebecca O'Brien is quoted in this nofilmschool feature, a detailed analysis of how the industry works - and will struggle post-Brexit. It argues there are 3 key areas of concern:

1. Fewer European co-productions
2. Decline in British cinema—both in quality and quantity
3. UK may no longer be a top international filming destination

1: Fewer European co-productions

Co-productions are the lifeblood of European cinema. In 1994, Treaty No. 147, or the European Convention on Cinematographic Co-Production, was ratified in order to "safeguard creation and freedom of expression and defend the cultural diversity of the various European countries." It was not only the portal to creative synergy in a continent rich with varied cultures, but it also created the framework for film financing across international borders.

Co-productions significantly reduce risk; where one production company might be unwilling to assume debt on a single film, three companies can share the risk and bring different financial resources to the project, such as country-specific tax incentives and investors. In an industry built upon the assumption of risk, a co-production can mean the difference between development purgatory and getting a film made.
Furthermore, co-productions can receive aid of up to 60% of the production budget.
Rebecca O'Brien, a producer on I, Daniel Blake, said that the success of co-productions is exactly the international cooperation for which Europe at large should strive. 

2: Decline in British cinema—both in quality and quantity

US stars in British films a tawdry tradition, terrible trope?

From Snatch to The Iron Lady: British films hobbled by a Hollywood star http://gu.com/p/4k86v?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Blogger

Disney on Alice and Tentpole model

Sad hatter: Johnny Depp’s Alice sequel makes half its predicted box-office http://gu.com/p/4jqbt?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Blogger

CONVERGENCE DISTRIBUTION Amazon enables VoD for all

Big development this: Amazon Video Direct enables anyone to upload video and monetise it through streaming fee, as revenue share or a small share of the $1m Prime pot.

This reinforces Amazon as one of the global big tech 4 with Apple, FB and Google, all now competing in video and music, with the likes of Netflix hoping to establish themselves as effective rivals (but most would-be competitors end up bust or as subsidiaries).

Amazon launches YouTube-style video service http://gu.com/p/4j3ap?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Blogger

Avatar, Paul, Cornetto Trilogy: audience, marketing, digitisation

http://www.threeflavorsscreenplay.com/theworldsend/
https://www.instagram.com/theworldsendfilm/
https://www.tumblr.com/tagged/the-world's-end
https://www.facebook.com/TheWorldsEndMovieUK/
https://twitter.com/hashtag/TheWorldsEnd?src=hash
https://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/beyond-the-screen/id830552609?mt=8
Wend Intl trailer;
http://corporate.comcast.com/our-company/businesses/nbcuniversal#accordion-3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ynzqn83T1c

WorldsEnd UK site;

2016 cornetto trilogy compressed from DB3igs

Quite simply bringing together some of the material on here on these...



WT use game to market Paul - play it here.


might add more...

WARP'S £48K LE DONK
This is both a good example of how low budget Indies can compete ... and an illustration of how much more Warp could/should be doing when promoting their films, even if that is the job of the distributor!!!
In this case, Le Donk was self-distributed in the UK, with a VoD (convergence!!! digitisation!!! proliferation!!!) US release. Below is a screen recording browsing the Warp web page for this



The page did offer the opportunity to send 'an exclusive Le Donk... Christmas card' ... but the link is dead now ... AND just look at the 'latest' news (I checked again May 2015!) ... its on Tyrannosaur!!! If Chris Anderson's long tail theory is to work surely they need to try harder with the online marketing?!

US VoD link and a dead link to some smart online marketing

Self-distribution!

This sums up the issue with Warp's online marketing - too little effort!!!

...

CONVERGENCE YouTube as TV network

Film channels are bound to be part of this mix, building on the pay-per-view system already built into YouTube, making self-distribution an easy option for even the most micro-budget filmmakers...

This is the news that YouTube are set to launch a TV subscription service to rival the likes of Hulu, to be called Unplugged, a reference to the US trend of unsubscribing from physical cable services and moving to online subscriptions.
A good example of digitisation and the disruption it has brought: even the traditional US TV networks will have little option but to sign up to the YouTube model or risk losing further business. The networks' traditional means of distribution, the cable box, is being radically undermined.

http://www.techradar.com/news/television/youtube-could-become-a-true-cable-killer-next-year-1320399

NBC-Universal buys DreamWorks - nightmare for WT?

If they got a chance to co-produce this could be good news, but that's unlikely, so WT face being a smaller fish in a BIG pond with parent company NBC-U picking up DreamWorks Animation for $3.8bn (a premium on the current stock market valuation of $2.5bn).

Already demoted from block funding to a first look deal this can only mean it will get more difficult for WT to gain financial backing or distribution agreement for their productions from within NBC-U.

As they've recently produced some ambitious, big budget family/children's movies, and have franchises like Bean and Nanny McPhee, this could mean in-house competition for attention and distribution.

WT are an admirably resilient company though, one that has retained its independent spirit and operating style while taking full advantage of their vertical integration in the NBC-U big six conglomerate.

They have a long-standing relationship with StudioCanal, a fellow NBC-U subsidiary, bringing production financing and, often, European distribution. Their track record ensures that the WT brand is enough to be taken seriously by all the big six distributors and earn a hearing (chance to pitch) any new productions.

Comcast’s NBCUniversal to buy DreamWorks Animation in $3.8bn deal http://gu.com/p/4tytg?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Blogger

REPRESENTATION Hollywood has no A-List Asian female stars

A row has broken out over the casting of a white actress in an anime remake

Max Landis: there are ‘no A-list female Asian celebrities’ who could have taken Scarlett Johansson’s Ghost in a Shell role http://gu.com/p/4tdyc?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Blogger

CONVERGENCE US cinema chain oks texting. sadface

I gather that after less than favourable feedback this horrible idea was binned, but multi-screen viewing is certainly a serious issue for film. And I found myself watching the latest Bourne and being very irritated at a pair to my left lighting the room with their phablets - even more than the ridiculous overuse of non-diegetic music to impress the kinetic tension on the producer-imagined dumb audience (in Aug 2016, a few months after picking up on this)

US cinema chain might introduce 'texting-friendly' screens.

Also ...

The Blue Room is being released in the UK by MUBI, first theatrically, then online. How do you feel about cinema becoming an online phenomenon?People keep saying that cinema’s about to die, but it has a way of transforming itself all the time. I never feel like saying: “It was better before.” OK, watching a film in a cinema is something different, but now people can use new tools, watch in different ways – they’re even able to watch three screens at once. That’s changing the grammar of cinema, it becomes like a mash-up or something. You have to take an interest – you have to use it all. [Mathieu Amalric: ‘Cinema has a way of transforming itself’]

BOX OFFICE v MARKETING software predictions

http://nofilmschool.com/2016/04/why-algorithm-promised-to-save-hollywood-destroyed-relativity-media

GENDER Stats on invisible mute women and male writers

Lots of killer statistics from multiple research papers here, detailing how little dialogue women get, how few films (18%) where 2 of the 3 lead roles are female, the dominance of male writers ... even the absurd long-term proportion of women in crowd scenes (17%!).

Also a good point, echoing one I make often, about the dismissive treatment of 'chick flicks' and the lack of a binary (we don't speak of men's movies!).

Why, in 2016, are women still (mostly) silent film stars? 

UK government report on film audience

The examples are little old, but this is still very useful: link.

The BFI, who took over the UK Film Council's role in using government funds to support the industry in 2011, publish an annual report and much more: link.

These are great sources for audience research as well as for a stronger idea on how the UK film industry operates.

a few of the 2015 reports, all freely downloadable

TECHNOLOGY 1st 4K discs and player out

4K TV and DSLR/camcorder has been going for a while, with most video editing software also offering upgrades to work with 4K.

Now Samsung have released the 1st consumer 4k player and Fox are releasing 4K discs at £19.99 - with The Life of Pi and Kingsmen among the titles. 

A 4K disc has 16 times the data of a DVD; it's basically the bitrate used in digital cinema projection.

Convergence continues.

Life Of Pi in ultra high-definition video? No thanks http://gu.com/p/4t6jq?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Blogger

INDIE DISTRIBUTION Festival then VoD day after, Swanberg strategy

This guy puts even Shane Meadows (the 5-day shoot £48k Le Donk) to shame, releasing SEVEN features in a year.

Over time he has responded to the limited benefit of festival buzz (6/7 months later when the DVD/VoD release occurs, the buzz is gone he notes) with his own unique strategy: put it out on VoD the day after a festival screening, tap into that buzz.

He urges Indie filmmakers to keep as much control as they can over production and distribution, noting that he makes most money when he has self-financed rather than relying on investors.

http://nofilmschool.com/2016/03/how-drinking-buddies-director-joe-swanberg-made-7-features-year